Thought Game on Syria

News media, supported by some intelligence agencies, says that Assad's government has used a chemical weapon against the Syrian people--probably targeting rebels.  President Obama stated that use of chemical weapons is a Red Line and that the US will take action to respond.

As a thought experiment I want to think about what "action" in Syria requires.

A) What is necessary for President Obama to send Forces to Syria?  What steps must the President go through to get boots on the ground? 

First, the President must have minimal support from the American public to get the military machine moving.  The popularity of the cause is important because it leads to political support in Congress, which releases funding for military action.  It is difficult for a military to sustain operations in an unpopular campaign where money, manpower, and priorities fluctuate based on political winds.  In an ongoing operation the military needs those items to keep going.  

Second, the President will need to work on the international opinion to build a coalition with a variety of international weight.  Coalitions and alliances can fight a war in a way that unilateral action cannot -- with international support comes legitimacy, at least in appearance.  Justifiable reason isn't enough to bring in the weight of the international community, the justification must be for a Just War.

The President will have to work through domestic and international politics to build support.  The President has latitude on military action without Congressional sanction, but they can still shut off funding to any operations by simply not funding operations for Syria or expressly rejecting the President's actions.  At this point, the primary blockage would be in the House of Representatives.  The House is not inclined to allow the President to seek any action that could possibly go well for him in public opinion.

In the international sphere, the President has to actually build a Coalition for some action.  There may be countries lining up to go in (Great Britain, France, Turkey, some others), but there are countries that continue to support the Assad regime.  Primarily, we're looking at Iran and Russia, and, I suspect, China.  

An United Nations Security Counsel Resolution (UNSCR), while not an absolute requirement, will add international legitimacy to the intervention and the ability to take "all necessary action" to protect Syria non-combatants.  However, with Russia and China supporting Assad, an UNSCR is very unlikely.  Russia and China both would benefit from the US and other Western nations loosing face over an UNSCR, but they could also benefit from sucking the US and the West into another Middle East conflict.

Assuming that Pres Obama is able to mobilize the nation and a coalition ...

B) What are the Strategic and Operational Objectives?  What are the National and International Objectives?  What is the conflict termination criteria (when do active combat operations cease)?  What is the combat termination criteria (when is there peace)?  What should Syria look like at the end of active combat operations and what should it look like after stability operations?

These questions, along with many others, are the ones that planners for Iraq (2003-2011) failed to address, analyze, and put any conscious effort into solving until after the Iraq fell.  It is one of the leading reasons that Iraq went from a corrupt stable country with a functioning police force and military to one that was unwillingly occupied and lacked any government, police, or stability.  US and British forces fought three basic enemies: first the Iraqi military, second the insurgents, and third the terrorists.  The second two are largely the result of a failure to plan for the post-Saddam regime.

As a Nation and as an International Community, before we step into a war we should have a clear idea of what we want by the time we get out of the war.  Post-war planning during the initial planning phase helps ensure that our operations are guided towards a strategic and operational end-state.  You need to see the destination if you want to know what road map to use and route to plan.  It also helps us understand the short-term goals and how those work into the long-term goals.

Once we've covered (B), our leaders and military planners can really focus the How.

C) What kind of Forces are necessary to accomplish the mission?  Do we need more that military forces, such as civilian chemical and radiation specialists, FBI?  Do we need to organize with the UN, NATO?  How are we suppose to handle Syrian allies?  Do we incorporate rebel forces in whole or in part or not at all?  Do we overlook connections to terrorists?

The answers to (B) will help here.  If the answer is simply to prevent the spread and use of chemical weapons, then we may be able to rely on extensive air operations targeting stockpiles, factories, and specific units.  If the answer includes regime change, then we should have the top cover from the UN to put ground forces into Syria.  Without UN authorization, international intervention is suspect and limited.  Just because it is right, doesn't mean we can do it. 

Best Beer Commercial - Ever

My wife said something to me in complete seriousness and it resulted in me thinking of a really good--probably the best--beer commercial aimed at the male population.

Scene setting: Open on a living room setting.  Sports game is on the large flat screen tv.  A woman is approaching the back of the couch with an enthusiastic male sitting on one side of the couch.  As the camera draws near the side of the male, he turns to look up into the camera.

Woman: Here's your chips and Beer [insert favorite beer], dear.

Guy: Thanks, babe.

Guy looks around for something to open the bottle, but does not have anything.  He looks back at the woman.

Woman: Do you want to use my bra to open it?

Guy beams up at woman as he reaches the bottle over to use the bra she is wearing.

Guy: I love you!

End scene.

This is what led to me having this completely male-oriented beer commercial:
I was sitting on the couch folding the first half of paper cranes for Jessica.  She went into the kitchen to get something to drink and asked if I wanted anything.  I said I was up for something, but not water or coke.  She came back in with a fancy root beer that comes in a bottle with a supposedly twist top.  Jessica asked if I need a bottle opener, but then noticed that the top had an arrow telling the drinker which way to twist.  I usually use something when I twist the tops off.  Jessica suggested her sports bra that was in the basket with folded laundry.  Her exact words were "Why don't you use my bra?" pointing to the sports bra.

'membrance

I spent this Memorial Day as my day off for the month of May.  Odd because I’m in Afghanistan and you usually don’t get a day off in a warzone.  My boss instituted a department policy that we get one day off a month.  It is a rest and relax day—from the 15-18 hours we put in.  This generally doesn’t happen for every unit here.  But we’re in Kabul and have a little more freedom than other places. 

The reason I choose this day is because it was the best day for May that I had.  Early in the month wouldn’t work because of other commitments. 

My plan for the day was simple: take my EWS test, PT, and talk to my wife.  I don’t think I realized fully that today was Memorial Day until a couple of days ago when I received an email as a reminder for the service at 1030. 

Every week we have a memorial service for the past week’s fallen.  Each country to lose someone will read out the name and unit of the fallen.  I attend every week.  It is the least I can do.  I’m not on the front line like they are.  It is a way to ensure that we, at HQ, do not forget the human loss extracted from our countries. 

Today, we recognized an American day of remembrance and invited any and all of our coalition members to attend.  It was fairly well attended.  No names were read off, but General Allen gave the number of the fallen Americans, Coalition members, and Afghans who have died in this war since he took command last year. 

My usual Memorial Day plan is to enjoy the day off, have a good time, live life, and general not acknowledge the cost of war.  Not the way I have since arriving in Kabul.  I don’t doubt that I’ll revert back to my normal behavior when I get back, but I’d like to think I’ll always keep these weekly services in my mind and that when Memorial Day does come around I’ll do something in remembrance.  

Darlin . . . While I'm away.

Darlin,


I'm only going to be gone a short while. I'll be back before you know it.

I'll be back right when you've learned to sleep without me. You’ll be starfishing in the center of our bed when I get back. You’ll have resigned yourself to the dog sleeping on my pillow even though you've tried to stop him—that’s when I’ll be on my way back. I’ll be back when you’ve learned to check all the doors before turning off all the lights and leaving a few dishes in the sink for the next day.  And I'll be back right when you can stop having someone mow the weeds in the back.

I'll be back soon. Right after your birthday, before Thanksgiving and Christmas. Before the switch to Woodlands and soon after school starts up.

We'll be back to our habits. We’ll be doing those small, frequent physical touches every few minutes. We’ll be watching the Little Couple, Dirty Jobs, and Mythbusters while surfing the web, throwing the ball for Joey, and discussing our day. We'll be back to you watching one of your train wreck shows while I do the dishes (acting like I’m not interested in the show), and me playing PS3 games and you cooking wonderful dinners (while you follow the plot of the game).

But I know you're worried about the next six months. I won't lie and tell you I'll be 100% safe. I'll do my best to stay out of trouble. I don’t lend myself to foolish or impulsive decisions. I’ll be back and with you soon.

You'll worry about me. I can't stop you. And everything will be harder by the small things that come up while I’m gone. The batteries in the smoke detectors should be good—we just replaced them all. These small things make it harder.

I can’t stop you from worrying, but, maybe, I can help you with some of the small problems. I have a list of things I want you to remember, things that I hope will help you while I'm gone. They are things I'm worried about.

• When you are tired it is okay to take a nap. But not too long because you'll never to get sleep at a decent hour and tomorrow will suck even more. 
• It is perfectly okay to sleep on the floor at work.
• When you are frustrated at the chores and feeling like they will swallow you whole, take Joey for a short walk. When you get back the chores will still be there, but Joey will be happy and you’ll feel better for getting outside with him.
• I recommend putting music on full blast and rocking out to Sarah Brightman while doing the dishes or whatever chore is easiest. 
• You'll probably need to move to Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood for the filing.
• When you are not hungry and haven't eaten all day, call one of the many friends you have and invite them over for dinner. I don’t know anyone who honestly doesn’t like your cooking. 
• Eating alone sucks, but starving your body doesn't do any good either.
• When the battery dies in the smoke detector, after you stop screaming and crying, get the dog and leave the house. Call the XO, the SJA, Tasha and Matt, Cecilia and Tommy, or any number of our friends with someone tall enough to change the battery. Someone will help you. Our neighbors will help.
• Please do not stack the step ladder onto a coffee table and do it yourself. 
• Do not attack the detector with a broom or any other stick. We’d have to pay for the damage
• However, if you do any of those things, please record it--we could send it to AVF if it is funny enough. 
• When you don't think you can go to work . . . you'll still go to work. Your work ethic wouldn't allow you not to.
• When the day starts too early and you can't go back to sleep, read a good book.
• When the day ends too late and you can't get to sleep, read a good book.  And call in sick if you haven't slept at all.
• When you find time on your hands, go take some pictures.
• When the dog is being a pain in the butt, don't throw the ball. Go to the library and browse the shelves.
• Throwing the ball will not help. He’ll just bring it back and want you to do it again. It never stops.
• But he doesn’t seem to bring the ball to you as often as he wants to just be pet. 
• When it seems too tough to keep up a strong front and you can't stop from crying, go ahead and cry. 
• Cuddle the dog, blow your nose (not in his fur), take some headache medicine, and watch a good chick flick. 
• Pride and Prejudice, When Harry Met Sally, Valentine’s Day, and Pretty Woman are good choices.
• When the night is dark and making noises, just keep thinking "I am the baddest beast in the dark! The Night should be afraid of ME!"
• When you miss me so much that it hurts, remember that I miss you and I love you with all of my heart.

I worry about you being without me. I worry about the problems that will happen while I'm away. I know there will be problems, like the light bulbs and smoke detectors. I know you are strong, determined, and independent. But I still worry.


When I’m having a hard time, I'll put on some Brad Paisley and think about time well wasted. Then I'll get back to it.

I love you.

Now, blow your nose and take those headache meds.

Getting into the Fight

I am going to Afghanistan--getting into the Fight.

At 0715 Friday morning in early February, a clerk handed me a note from my boss: "Call me at home."  Okay, strange.  He'd be in soon--why not talk in person, I asked myself.  But, he's the boss, so I called him.

Here is our conversation:

Me:  "Good morning, sir.  What's up?"  Waiting for my computer to finish loading.

Boss:  "Izac, you need to talk to Jessica."

Me:  "Okay."  (That sounds ominous.)

Boss:  "You still good about deploying?"

Me:  "Yes, sir."  (Uh...)

Boss:  "Okay, talk to Jessica.  I'll talk to you and Sam when I get in."

Let the roller coaster begin.  In 21 days I learned the meaning of "expeditionary" and that a lot of preparation is needed.

Training, training, annual training, and more training.  And gear issue.  Orders, travel orders, verbal orders, force of will to make things happen.

One day, my minion  and I were preparing to take on a complicated and interesting case from another office.  My office had a small case load, so we could take another case and spend plenty of time on it.

The next, I'm working up for a deployment.  2 months to boots on the ground and half that time would be spent traveling to and training in Virginia and Okinawa.  I had 21 days to essentially prepare for a deployment.

New section

I created a new section on my blog.  Right now I've titled it Fiction: Emry.  It is a part of a story I started.  I haven't finished it, but I figured if I put it out there, then I could have people read it and tell me what they think.  I plan to keep at it, but it won't be fast.

I will probably also include other stories that I have in development, when I have time.

Zen of Trial Counsel

Taken Sept 2011 near Kumamodo.

After I got back from China I moved from Legal Assistance to Trial Counsel.  In non-military lawyer terms, that means I went from be a normal non-criminal attorney helping people with random legal problems (like bad landlords, creditors, divorces, and adoptions) to Prosecutor (an actor for the government). 

In the first job I did not have to go to court or represent a point of view in front of a court of law.  A Court Of Law is far more structured, detailed, and unforgiving than writing a Last Testament or arranging for custody. 

In the court of law, I have set deadlines that if I miss them a potential perpetrator could walk free.  I have motions to exclude or include testimony or real evidence; I have victims to talk to, witnesses to prepare and arrange transportation; tactics to analyze; and Convening Authorities to advise.

Legal Assistance, while important, is less stressful.  When I first took up the reins as the Legal Assistance Attorney, I also became the Officer-in-Charge of that section with four Marines to train and educate to how I want my office run and how to protect our clients.  I felt underwater.

Taken Sept 2011 at the Springhead near Kumamodo.

I called and emailed other attorneys I knew who were doing the same job all across the Marine Corps.  Some had more experience than me, others had experienced attorneys to ask those questions to, and a few were in the same boat--alone and unafraid.  I learned fast and created an office that worked efficiently.  I wasn't underwater for long.  I began to swim and even dive for oysters. 

When I left for China in June, I had a shop that I could leave for 4 weeks and know that I would not come back to a mess or ethical violations.  In fact, I had left my office for four weeks and it held solid for those four weeks.  When I came home from China, I had a new office, with different Marines, different duties and I had more demanding responsibilities.

Trial Counsel has deadlines.  90 days or 120 days are my most important deadlines.  If I miss that deadline, I am getting bad paper--unless I have an absolutely airtight excuse.  I have to be aware of every investigation going on; know what the Commanding Officers are planning in each case; predict the outcomes if things progress in a certain fashion; and I need to show results.

In the month of July, I had two guilty pleas that I walked into court.  I learned a lot.  The deals expected too much, my evidence was not sufficient, and the judge came down lighter than I expected.  I also had a contested case that nearly backfired--I had my butt handed to me, along with two other attorneys' rear ends.  I had to put my tail between my legs and beg forgiveness from the victim and the Convening Authority.  Reputation damaged.

Lesson Learned?  Nearly.  Since then, and with learning how to draft charges better and talk to Convening Authorities, I've gotten better and so has my office.  My Marines stepped up and have done everything I've asked of them.

Underwater?  I don't think I'll ever feel like I'm above water.  I'll probably always feel like I'm treading water in this job.

Countryside near Kumamodo

Trial Counsel is a job where you do teeter on a limb.  You have to balance between competing interests.  The only solid ground you have is what is right beneath you.  And sometimes, that ground isn't all that close.

The judge in the July guilty dives talked to me and the defense counsel afterwards about how we performed.  He gave an interesting take on what the Prosecutor's job is.  He said "Your job is to present the evidence, not seek a conviction.  You are suppose to seek Justice."

Those words are with me every day.  Those words have become my new mantra in working through this role--Present the Evidence and allow for Justice.  How I present evidence will dictate an outcome (where the tactics and procedures come in).  But I shouldn't be looking to pull the wool over the Jury's eyes to get a desired outcome.  Others can want blood, but I shouldn't.  I should be looking to present the case and allow for Justice.

I did that in a case in September.  I had two cases that saw a courtroom, one for a sentence and the other for sufficiency.  I think the outcomes reflected the evidence in the case.  The first I presented evidence for returned a sentence in excess of what we'd been getting before--I'd learned from the July cases that I need to adjust my tactics and procedures to make sure everything made it in and triggered the correct responses.  The other case failed to meet sufficiency--but I presented the evidence.  I didn't try to create a mountain out of a mole hill.  I went in with what I had and laid it out--and defense counsel performed his duties admirably.  If it doesn't work, then it doesn't work. 

Working with the assumption that I am suppose to present the evidence and Justice will be done by the jury or the judge, stress about an outcome disappears.  I'm no longer worried that I'll get bad paper for not obtaining an outcome--because I don't decide that. 

"I represent the Government, and I am here to present the evidence in this case."

Taken Sept 2011 at the Springhead near Kumamodo